July 1st: the Start of the Biggest Free Agency Class The NBA Has Ever Seen in its History! What to Make of It and Scenario Playing…

Posted: July 1, 2010 in NBA

…free agency for the next week is under way in the National Basketball Association, and in a week you will be able to sign with a new team or remain with the same old team. But the talk and the negotiating last night at midnight has officially begun…and the New Jersey Nets are the first one’s up chasing Lebron James, and then New York Knicks will be up after that.

You know, somebody said something to me one time that was very interesting…they said “ there’s lots of different riches…theirs old money, and new money, and family money and lottery money, and stolen money and drug money….there’s a lot of different riches…but poor is poor! Bartrow, California poor is Dumbwater, Florida poor…not a lot of variation” and similarly I’d argue it’s the same with smart and dumb!

There is a lot of different smarts, there is technology smart, there is book smart, street smart…a lot of different smarts! But dumb is pretty much dumb. Low IQ is low IQ…not a lot of variation. Now, smart guys do dumb things…I mean Bill Clinton is a great example of that, remember what he said in that 20/20 interview “I did not have sexual relationships with that women” [referring to Monica Lewinsky]….smart people do dumb things is usually because of a lack of discipline, they can’t stay away from alcohol, gambling, sex…whatever!

But smart guys, they do dumb things you know…like Ruppert Murduch is a smart guy yet has been bankrupt a couple of times…I mean Donald Trump is a smart guy, I don’t know why he keeps doing casinos in Atlantic City, it’s just not happening….like smart guys do dumb things all the time. Dumb guys almost never pull out smart things…you can get lucky, but it’s very very very rare that a dumb guy is gonna pull off something smart…back to the “there is many riches…one poor, many smarts…one dumb” argument.

Landing Lebron James is not going to be about luck. There are a lot of smart people in companies who are going to have a lot of say, its calculated; it’s well thought out off…this all leads me to bash the New York Knicks again. For 10 years, they’ve been one of the dumb guys…and dumb is dumb as I just argued. Bad picks, bad GM, bad trades, bad organization…just bad coaches, this is just a bad dumb organization.

So I’m suppose to believe (going back to my theory…lot of different smarts, but dumb is dumb) I’m suppose to believe that the Knicks, the classic dumb-nuts are going to pull off a brilliant sales pitch and land the most beautiful women at the university….really? the prettiest girl on campus…they’re suddenly going to get smart, they’re just going to put their heads together, it’s going to be a really well orchestrated, well thought out, beautifully prepared sales pitch…and they’re just pull it off seamlessly and yank Lebron outta his hometown…really??????

Well, according to the New York Post team president Donny Walsch, rehabbing from a neck injury and is in a wheel chair, will join the sales pitch!…yeah, nothing clearly says “vibrant presentation” than an old dude in a wheel chair and that’s clearly going to be slick! [Sarcasm].

Now maybe Lebron decides on New York (I doubt it) but old dude in a wheel chair and the head of CableVIsion, are two of the 4 presenters? I don’t think they can pull it off. And quite frankly the Knicks can’t even sell the organization!!! Have you noticed what New York is selling??? THE CITY!!!! The City!! Think about it though, would you leave a really good job or a great job like the Cavs because of a city?

I mean if the city is the key to a job, would you work at Research in Motion??? Were located in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada…which has all the charm of a relatively small IT industry and the charm of an elevator factory making company…oh by the way, there’s one next door to the company…so you’re asking Lebron James to leave a really good job with a really good team, for a city.

For the record, I don’t think that the Knicks can pull it off. They haven’t pulled anything but hamstrings for a decade!! So I don’t buy it…I just don’t see it happening. As I said before, smart guys do dumb things….dumb guys don’t pull off smart things…like unless its absolute luck. And this is way beyond luck. Nike is going to wanna agree, Lebron is gonna wanna agree, his handlers are gonna wanna agree. There’s a, you know, there’s a lot of stuff here. Don’t forget that Gilbert (the owner of the Cavs) is really tight with Lebron and for the record the Cavs just hired Bryon Scott today as their new head coach….I think that is a very big bonus for the Cavaliers, I think that’s reason number 26 that Lebron stays…solid coach with NBA experience, he played the game, he’s got rings, he a former Laker.

So, I mean, you know how the NBA works…the Lakers have a certain cache…So, like, if you wanna hear my odds…I think Chicago has got about a 15% chance, Miami’s got about 10%, I think New York and New Jersey have about 5% each…that’s about 35% in total…so that means that the Cavs are 65%…but if you’re talking one on one, I think there is a 95% chance against the Knicks that he would stay in Cleveland and 5% chance that he’ll go to New York…I think the Nets truly have no shot!

Nobody is playing in Newark for 2 years. So with the Byron Scott signing and the timing of the Byron Scott deal ….let’s be honest here, I mean I think the Cavs did do a very good job of pulling it off…kinda like giving a little protein boost to Lebron, as he goes into these other interviews. I mean, you give the Cav’s credit. They had the best record in the league; they kinda know what they are doing…

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