Now it is time to do it for the NFL, two days ago I released my take on Vegas’ picks for college football and where I personally thought that they had whiffed…now it’s time to focus on the NFL….as I’ve said before in my rants, I’m not really a fantasy football league type of guy…I do bet games, I bet futures and I bet games…I’m not into fantasy football…fantasy football is one of those things where everybody pleads with you to join and says “ohh it really doesn’t take that much time!” but what happens is that 40% of men actually like their jobs which means that 60% don’t….those are a lot of fantasy football players, because the 40% of guys who love their job, generally are important…they’re not playing a ton of fantasy football on their computer.
So the 60% of guys who don’t like their jobs, are looking for something at their job to pass the time…that’s the group that plays fantasy football and so you say it only takes 20 minutes a week, when in fact that is the minimum time…but you end up on your blackberry, on your computer, on your iPhone, screwing around with it…so it overtakes your life because you’re in a miserable job, which statistically 61% of you are! So I don’t play fantasy football, I just don’t have time for it and I like my job (Business Analyst at Cancer Care Ontario…as of September 2010 and my job right now as an Economics student at U of Waterloo) and I’m not just looking for areas to just add fluff to it…I like betting games, it takes like 5 minutes to do and then by Saturday or Sunday night I’ve got my money.
But I will say this, Sports Betters are doing a better job than ever against Vegas and bookies, because you have more information, sports guys are smarter than ever…the average guy on the street is smarter than ever when it comes to gambling…there’s more access to more information, if you really follow sports and you wanna win (and you can)…but I think Vegas also sometimes makes mistakes and there are 4 teams in College Football and 4 teams in the NFL that I really think Vegas has made a mistake on …now the 4 college teams who I think are better than Vegas predicts are….[sorry, look it up on the previous football rant!] Now let me give you the 4 NFL teams that I think that Vegas has undervalued….drum roll please!!…
#1 the Green Bay Packers! Vegas has the Packers at 9 ½ wins…if you look at Green Bay’s schedule, one of the first things I always look at when studying schedules is “how does it start? And how does it end?” Now Green Bay is gonna be in a playoff race with the Vikings until the end, they’re not resting any starters and that schedule gets absolutely soft down the stretch!…Detroit, Chicago, San Francisco @ home, a New York Giants that may be outta the running… very winnable, they will be in a playoff race and I doubt Chicago and Detroit will be….they also start the season with 6 games in which they will be favored in all of them! Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, @ Redskins and Miami…they have tremendous skilled people, the schedule is very tough in the middle of the season, but it starts well….they will gain a lot of confidence and it ends against softer teams when they should be embroiled in a playoff race…Green Bay to me, straight cash homie, is better than 9 ½ wins…..drum roll please….
The other team that I think that is really being overlooked (kills me to say this…Marc F if your reading this, you’ll smile and know I’m being objective)….#2 The New England Patriots!….now, I know what you’re saying “Andrew, but you love Tom Brady as a QB!” ….yeah the schedule is tough, but here is where people are seriously overlooking their schedule…here are their 6 toughest outta conference games….Cincinnati, Baltimore, Minnesota, Indianapolis, New York Jets and Green Bay….all of them, are @ HOME!!! 2 of them, nationally televised night games…where New England historically is very good, they also get lay-up games and they play teams: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland…if you really believe that Belichick is dumb and Brady isn’t elite and Moss and Welker aren’t very good…then don’t listen to me! They get every tough outta conference game @ home, every single one and have some lay-up W’s! So you are also talking about a very motivated Belichick and Brady, coming off a massively disappointing season…they will be fine!….drum roll please….
Here is where I think Vegas has massively OVER-VALUED a team…I’m talking about over’s and under…future bets in the NFL…..Vegas has the Chicago Bears at 8 wins, I think that could be double what they win…1st of all, outta conference schedule, brutal!! @ Dallas, @ Giants, @ Miami, New England, @ Minnesota, Jets…that’s a brutal outta conference schedule…you have a team that has a lame duck head coach, an inconsistent QB, does not have elite skill people , so unless your defense is outstanding, you are playing some of the best offenses in the league. Dallas, Green Bay twice, Minnesota twice, New England…that’s a tough schedule…again, lame duck head coach…and what happens is that if Chicago is (with a lame duck head coach) at the end of the regular season…when Green Bay and Minnesota have already surpassed them, you’ve got a lame duck head coach, a QB with an attitude…nothing to play for and here are your final 4 games : New England, Minnesota, Jets and Green Bay….4 playoff teams, fighting for playoff position…the Chicago Bears are NOT an 8 win football team!….and my final team that I think is seriously being under-valued is…..drum roll please….
The San Francisco 49ers at 8 ½ wins!!! You can argue that they have the softest schedule in the NFL, Vegas basically sees them as an 8-8 football team….Seattle, Kansas City, Oakland, Carolina, Denver (with Tebow) St. Louis, Tampa, Seattle, St. Louis, Arizona…And it should be noted, they have always played Seattle and Arizona tough…the 49ers play Seattle and Arizona tough, even when the 49ers stunk!! When they were terrible… they have had 3 good drafting years…if they can keep Alex Smith upright, there’s only 3 games on this schedule…where they will be touchdown underdogs…New Orleans, @ Green Bay and @ San Diego. Other than that, coin flip games throughout the season…for a team that has a ton of young talent, especially at skilled positions…Vernon Davis, Crabtree, Gore…they drafted two offensive linemen, their better upfront…I think San Francisco is better than an 8-8 football team…so there you go!
My NFL picks….I think Green Bay, San Francisco and New England are better than what Vegas thinks and I think Chicago is significantly WORSE than Vegas thinks…..now you might say “but Andrew, outta all the 8 teams that you picked…you only chose one under!” well that’s true…I guess with a rough economy that we are still in and what not…I’m trying to be optimistic and give people a reason to be cheerful when placing these bets….like heck, I could’ve picked like about 10 college football teams that aren’t as good as Vegas thinks…I tried to pick teams that are better than what Vegas thinks…I want my audience to feel good about themselves…like I really do, like sometime yesterday I was saying that “ half the league can’t win the Superbowl!”I was a total downer when first analyzing the lines…