More Upsets Than Ever In College Basketball…Really?

Posted: March 25, 2011 in NCAA Basketball

So I got a lot of emails over the weekend and people were saying “Andrew, look at all these upsets!” Again, we’re overstating how many upsets we’ve had in this college basketball tournament. Obama went chalk and he’s like top 1% percentile. I know I’m doing horrible in my ESPN bracket, but if you really think about it, there hasn’t been that many upsets because we overstate them, I’ll give you an example.

Who are the 8 bet college basketball programs, Men, in the U.S? I’d list Duke, Carolina, Kansas, Arizona, Syracuse, UConn, Ohio State and Kentucky, 7 of the 8 teams are still in it! Syracuse got knocked off. Does anybody really doubt that Ohio State, Kansas are gonna lose basketball games? The 4 best teams, many believe are UConn, Ohio State, Duke and Kansas, they’re all left. Now Virginia Commonwealth, a surprise? Yes! Richmond is a surprise. But if you got to last year’s sweet 16 – go one year ago, Northern Iowa at this point a #9 seed was still in it, Cornell a #12 seed was still in it, St. Mary’s a #10 seed was still in it and the University of Washington an #11 seed was still in it, that was last year. This year? We’ve got an #11 an #11 a #12 and a #10. Last year we had a #9, a #12, a #10 and an #11. This year its Marquette, VCU, Richmond and Florida State and Marquette has always been a good program.

So the idea that – every year folks, we’ve got about four straglers, we’ve got about four teams, this year its Marquette, VCU, Richmond and Florida State and the odds maker say that Virginia Commonwealth and Richmond aren’t going to make it past here and probably Marquette isn’t either. So I just think we tend to overstate upsets. March Madness is not as mad as you think. Now, there are more upsets than the NBA because in the NBA, you have seven games. So, good luck beating the Lakers 4 times in a 2 week period. Whereas you can get lucky and beat a Kansas or have a great game and beat Syracuse, but I feel as if we’re overstating it. Chalk, still overwhelmingly dominates the brackets and overwhelmingly we haven’t had that many upsets as everyone is claiming.

Like 11 of the 16 teams left are a #5 seed or better, so 70% of your teams left are a #5 seed or better and the predictions are, the lower seeds aren’t going to make it past tonight and Friday, so there you go!

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Comments
  1. Mike Crack says:

    I guess now with VCU and Butler getting in, it changes things. But at the time, your points stood. What’s your pick for the final?

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