This is a huge day for me – much bigger for me than for you, so every year I spend a bloody fortune on today and tomorrow. Las Vegas this past Sunday released their over’s and under’s on about 30 college football teams. They basically predict how many games the teams will win. I have no idea and no explanation why this means a lot to me…I have no idea! I’ve clearly got no life, but I’ve been betting it since 2006 and have done pretty well.
Last year (for those of you who were already followers of this blog) you’ll remember that my two favourite picks were Auburn – Vegas had them at 7 ½ wins, I said they could be undefeated going up against Alabama…they played for the national title! I said Wisconsin was massively under-valued as well, Washington I also said was under-valued…they all covered. Now I did whiff on Michigan badly – I liked Michigan’s system…so without further to do, I’m going to give you my picks right now – and I love all of them! I’m going to give you 5 teams – 3 of them undervalued and 2 of them overvalued.
The best single bet to me is my boy Parthans’ Boise State! Vegas came out this past Sunday and posted them at 10 ½. Folks, they’re playing for the national title if not, they’re 11-1. They’re favoured in every game and even if they lost their opener against Georgia – and I don’t think they will, they’re running the table. They’ll be a 20 point favourite in virtually every game. They’re toughest games; outside of the Georgia game are all at home. I love Boise State at 10 ½ – to me they’re a 12-0 football team.
Texas A&M is at 9, Vegas put them at 9 wins. Do yourself a favour and bet them to top that. At worst, they’ll win 9 games. They return – remember, this is a program on the rise. They’re 3 toughest games, with one exception, are all at home. Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Texas – all at home. Even if they lost on the road to Oklahoma, probably will and they win one of those 3, at home, that’s a 10 win football team. It’s safe bet 9 on A&M, they are to me an 11 or 10 win team and Vegas has them at 9 wins…at worst they’re 9-3 and it’s a push.
The other team which I think is undervalued is Michigan State at 7 ½. In the Big 10 this year, there’s very few returning QB’s. Kurt Cousins is one of them, they’ve got an excellent coach, a returning QB…this looks like a 9 win team to me. They have recruited very well in the last 2 years, with Michigan being down in recruiting, in-state. This year to me is a pop year for Michigan State; it’s a 10 win team. They get Ohio State early before the players come back – that Ohio State game was a loss guaranteed before the season but I think now it’s a potential win. So I think Boise State, Texas A&M and Michigan State will win more than Vegas predicts and I’ve been very good in the last several years doing this.
Now, the 2 teams that I think are massively overvalued …one of them is Penn State, Vegas has them at 8 wins. 4 of their last 5 games could be losses. They end their season @Northwestern, Nebraska, @Ohio State and @Wisconsin. Plus they have Alabama early at home – now Penn State was loads up with soft balls to begin with this season, they almost always start 4-0, but they certainly won’t beat Alabama at home. They’ve got brutal road games to end the year. Northwestern – in Chicago, it’s an ESPN night game and that’ll be a potential loss…this to me is a 7 win team, they’ve got 5 potential losses, brutal road games and they’re still mediocre at QB, good on defense, mediocre on QB.
The other team that I think is massively overvalued – based on the sources I read and use for research, including the College Today Special pullout from USA Today says that Vegas has the University of Arizona penciled in for 6 wins. I think Vegas massively massively overvalued them. The good QB is fooling people. They have to return all 5 offensive line starters, lost their 2 pass rushers to the NFL, they’re schedule is BRRUUTTAALL!!! @ Oklahoma State….loss, @USC…loss, @Oregon State…loss, @ Washington…loss, @ Arizona State…loss, and they’re home games – Stanford and Oregon? Are probably losses as well. That is a 5 win football team, it’s a rebuilding year even though they have a really good QB that is fooling people….So there you go!
Boise State, Texas A&M, Michigan State I’m calling to surpass Vegas’ prediction and Penn State and Arizona to go under it. Stay tune for tomorrow’s rant where I’ll hit you up with Vegas’ predictions for the NFL! Disagree or think I should’ve included a particular school? Drop your own rant in the comments!