What Is Mark Sanchez’s Connectability To Wins and Losses?

Posted: September 2, 2011 in NFL

Wins and losses in the pre-season don’t mean anything – but here’s the issue…Mark Sanchez. We all know this, you’re not going to win Superbowls in today’s NFL, it is very difficult unless your elite at quarterback. Go look at the last 10 Superbowl champions, only Eli Manning’s not an A+ quarterback and he’s pretty darn good and the Jets are going to win a bunch of games this year. They face Jacksonville, Oakland, Miami twice, Buffalo twice, Redskins, Kansas City…that’s 9 non-elite quarterbacks. They arguably have the best corners in the NFL, so they’re going to win most of those games…they’re a playoff team. Yet in this rant I’ll argue that they’re becoming a playoff team DESPITE Mark Sanchez.

So I was on Facebook chat last night (by the way, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter at iwantmorerants if you enjoying reading these posts) and was talking with some buddies and I sorta told them the jist of this rant I was working on and they were like “Andrew, you flipped on Mark Sanchez, you’re so flippy floppy.  Well first of all, when he broke into the league, everybody said he was terrible. I said “no, he’s better than what you’re saying though not great” But not I feel (as a die hard Jets supporter) that he’s starting to get credit for stuff he doesn’t deserve.

By the way, why do I have to tattoo my opinions on my shoulder and live with them for the rest of my life? I don’t do that with anything else! I hated tomatoes in my early teens; I can sit and live on tomatoes now. Wasn’t a hot beverage guy during my teens, now I can’t live without it! You don’t buy a stock forever! Some people buy and sell stocks daily, forget annually or monthly. So my feeling on Mark Sanchez is that when everyone was saying that he was dreadful, all I simply said was “he does have an uncanny ability in bigger games to make that one big throw a game. But he’s now getting credit where he doesn’t deserve credit.

Like I’m hearing this about Mark Sanchez “eh, he gets her done in the playoffs” really? In 2009, in one of his games – by the way, his great playoff win game in the 09’ playoffs, he was 12 for 15. He was babysitting the offense, he wasn’t leading it! The next game, he had a 60 rating and then the next one he lost! Last year, he opened up with a 62 rating, two weeks later he lost. Let’s not make him into Johnny Unitas. Here’s what is really interesting about Mark Sanchez. I’ve always believed – just like Chris Johnson of the Titans right now, wants a lot of money. The problem with Chris Johnson is “what is his connectability, in other words, his value to wins?” It’d almost be like you to your employer, what’s your connectability to revenue? Are you driving the sales for your department? The more connectability to revenue – Rush Limbaugh, the more you make.

When you look at the NFL, certain guys – even though you think they’re great, aren’t as valuable as you think they are! I’ll give you an example: Aaron Rogers. The Packers won a game when he had a quarterback rating of below 60 yet they lost a game when he had a quarterback rating over 110. Now nobody disputes that Aaron Rogers isn’t valuable, but Drew Brees is more valuable because in the 3 games he had a bad quarterback rating, they lost all of them yet in the 6 when he was over 100, he was 5-1, should’ve been 6-0 lost in overtime to Atlanta, which was a very winnable game. Brees is good they win, Brees is bad…they lose! He had absolute connectability.

Here’s what’s happening with Mark Sanchez…he’s simply not that valuable! The Jets won games last year – and no other quarterback can say this, the Jets won a game last year where he had a quarterback rating of 59, the Jets won another game when he had a rating of 60.1, the Jets won another game when he had a quarterback rating of 70.4 and the Jets lost close to a great team – Baltimore, 10-9 when he had a quarterback rating of 56. I haven’t flipped flopped on Mark Sanchez, he wasn’t as dreadful as the media and the fans claimed he was for the first year and a half. But he is now – I’m selling the stock, because he’s now getting credit where he doesn’t deserve the credit. So I can make an argument that his performance has very little to do with wins and losses.

The Jets win when he’s dreadful and they’ve lost when he’s pretty descent! That’s my problem with Mark Sanchez So I saw that game a couple of weeks ago – the Jets look like a team, defensively, that can win 9 games even if Sanchez gets a 68 quarterback rating. They face a lot – 9 non-elite quarterbacks. But what is happening now with Sanchez – here’s a little number, here’s another thing he’s getting credit for: “Andrew, first year he had 20 picks, last year he only had 13. He cut way down” But let’s really dig deeper into that. According to Football Outsiders, footballoutsiders.com is the website, they do a  very good job on research. They go game by game and throw by throw. They conclude that Mark Sanchez let the NFL by far in dropped interceptions – he had 15, almost 3x the amount his rookie season, 6 more dropped picks than the closest quarterbacks.

So even the one thing that we’re giving him credit for “boy he’s cut down on those picks” he was really really lucky and in this league, if you want to get to the Superbowl and win it – and that’s the Jets goal. I mean, this is not a team like the Lions who just wants to get into the playoffs…they want to win the Superbowl, that means you have to win 2 more games. You can’t do it with 55% completion and that game a couple of weeks ago, I saw – forget the Jets could’ve won the game and should’ve won the game, but they’re fine because they’re going to win a lot of games, but that’s not where they’re at now. They’re at “okay, we gotta improve at the quarterback spot” and you know what I said – they’re offense now, has become 4 words now “nimble, nimble, nimble, settle” that’s the Jets offense. “Nimble, nimble, nimble, settle…for a field goal” I don’t think you can win the Superbowl that way.

  1. Mike Crack says:

    It is a quarterback league, and while a lot of teams do win SBs because of good QBs, sometimes the QB isn’t the determinant. Eli Manning wasn’t an A+ QB in 2007, and Brad Johnson (2002 winner with the Bucs) never was an A+ QB. However, I’d argue that the 2001 Tom Brady and the 2005 Ben Roethlisberger weren’t A+ QBs either. In fact, the SB losing QB in each of those years was better than they were (Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck, respectively)

    Anyway, I agree. Mark Sanchez is a huge beneficiary of a great team surrounding him. He can make the occassional clutch throw in the playoffs like you said, but he doesn’t put the team on his back. He misses wide open receivers more often than you’d like to see from a starting QB.

    Also, great point on the dropped INT stat. Footballoutsiders has some interesting tracking and statistics. I wonder if we will see that “luck” run out this year, or if Sanchez will improve his decision making and accuracy.

    With all of that said, the Jets formula/way of playing has worked pretty well so far. If Shonn Greene doesn’t get hurt in the AFC title game in 2009, that Colts-Jets game could have been much closer. Of course, every team is the victim of injuries. Also, the Jets put up a good fight in the Steelers game last post-season. I think it was the Jets defense, and their uninspired tackling of Rashard Mendenall in the first half that really did them in.

    Still, I like New England to win the division again…or maybe Buffalo.

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