Dallas (-3) over San Francisco, Result: Push
Well you know I like the Cowboys this year, take them at (-3) against San Francisco. Listen, the bottom line here is the Niners’ secondary doesn’t have the people to keep up with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Miles Austin and Felix Jones. The Dallas secondary is banged up; Terrence Newman may or may not play. But can Alex Smith really take advantage of a weak secondary? Absolutely not! And you know that Dallas, with DeMarcus Ware, is going to put pressure on your quarterback, and I feel the same way about Alex Smith with pressure as I do being on a prop plane in a thunderstorm. I love Dallas in this matchup. If Tony Romo doesn’t fumble the ball at the 1, they win the game against my Jets and probably win it going away. Dallas is ticked off, they have an enormous advantage at quarterback in this football game and have skilled people, I think Dallas covers 26-13.
Detroit (-9) over Kansas City, Result: Win
In this next one, Vegas disagrees with me, but I guarantee you that if you take this game…you’re going to be making it rain like Nevin Shapiro on a yacht…trust me! Detroit has to do a (-9) at home against Kansas City – I just don’t think people get how bad Kansas City is, this is a gigantic number. But Matt Cassel is not the answer because in the last 3 games, he’s passed for 304 yards with 6 picks and 1 TD. Charlie Weiss is gone and they are reeling and are going to be facing an upright Matt Stafford and all sorts of weapons – and Kansas City is not only struggling on offense, they lost their best player (the safety) Eric Berry for the year! There is a huge mismatch on the outside, Calvin Johnson has a huge height advantage, almost 7 inches over Kansas City corner Brandon Flowers, I’m buying stock right now in American cars and in the Lions, they’re both from Michigan, I think they cover the spread, it’s a big number but I like Detroit 27 Kansas 13.
Titans (+6.5) cover Ravens, Result: Win
Alright, so this is going to surprise some people because the Ravens were unbelievable against the Steelers last week – but remember, the Ravens aren’t as intimidating on the road and the Titans are at home and they get 6 ½ points. Now, I know what you’re saying “Baltimore is great” but you know that in the NFL from week to week you get different teams. The Ravens have to account for Chris Johnson. Remember what the Titans have – smart veteran quarterback, Kenny Britt star receiver, star running back Chris Johnson who is coming off a horrible week and one of the better run blocking lines in the NFL. Now, nobody disputes that there is a talent advantage here in Baltimore but Kenny Britt, 27 yards per catch last weekend, he and Hasselback are fine and are going up against a rookie corner Jimmy Smith. This is one of those desperate teams, Tennessee is desperate, and they are at home, getting nearly a touchdown. Ravens win it, but I’ll take the points 24-23, take the 6 ½ points.
Chicago (+7) cover Saints, Result: Loss
Here’s another game where I like an underdog – Vegas slightly agrees with me, but the public doesn’t. Everybody loves New Orleans this week “oh they get extra time off, they’re at home…” yet they are a mess physically. Marques Colston is out with a collar bone injury. Lance Moore is not 100%, the Saints are incredibly thin at wide receiver. They still don’t have Will Smith – best pass rusher at times. Meanwhile, Chicago – let’s be honest about the Bears, as a dog in their last 11 games they are 8-3. They are a very good cover team, they gave up 18 points defensively last year – they just don’t give up a lot of points outside of that New England game in the snow. Jay Cutler is going to face some heat because the Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams loves the blitz. But they are not at full strength defensively. Cutler got sacked 5 times last week yet it got better over the course of the game – the protection that is. I think New Orleans is beat up, the number is way too big and don’t forget that Chicago has 17 players whose contracts expire at the end of the year. There are a lot of one year deals on this Bears team, there are guys playing for their last or first big contract. Chicago finds ways to keep games close so I’ve got the Bears losing close 24-23 but I’m taking the 6 ½ to 7 points.
Pittsburgh (-15) over Seattle, Result: Win
Finally, it’s the blowout game of the week. Pittsburgh at (-15) it’s a horrible number. You never want to swallow 15 points in the NFL, but don’t forget this. Since 08’ the Seahawks have lost 21 of 26 away matchups where all but 1 was by double digits and they are the worst road team in the league. They’ve had one good road win in 3 years – that was at Chicago. You’re talking about a Pittsburgh team with multiple outlets offensively, opening at home against a finesse team and a finesse defense. I get a huge advantage on defense, I get a huge advantage at quarterback, I get a team in Pittsburgh – if Pittsburgh wins last week? I don’t buy this number. Pittsburgh is angry, I’m afraid that the Seachickens might return home hurt, I don’t do this very often but I’m taking the blowout win right now. I think they win it right now, 34-6 over Seattle. A total blowout for the Pittsburgh Steelers