Record After Week # 6 is: 21-9-4 *note: first 5 picks were all college picks
Alright, so let’s start with my one favourite that I like this weekend in the NFL
Colts vs. (-14) Saints
This is a huge number for the Saints and this is also the Colts’ second of three straight road games. Drew Brees has finally got a healthy Marques Colston. He’s got an emerging star in Jimmy Graham and that’s with him just becoming a star in this league – he’s kinda like Antonio Gates from about 4 years ago. The Colts surrendered 28 points to Matt Cassel and 27 points to Andy Dalton, now they get the league’s number # 2 offense… and that spells trouble. Don’t forget, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have both been great after losses. Their last 6 losses – the Saints have bounced back with wins. The Saints’ defense has had to deal with Aaron Rogers, Matt Schaub, Cutler and Josh Freeman. Now Greg Williams, the defensive coordinator, gets Curtis Painter…they will unleash the hounds. Few teams in this league play better at home than the Saints. This is a major step down in competition for the Saints who finally get a weak quarterback and a weak team. They have an edge at quarterback, offensive line and coach. The Saints’ defense is vulnerable to elite quarterbacks…no question! Curtis Painter is not one of them. Swallow the points; blow out by the Saints 33-13.
Chargers vs. Jets (+1 ½)
The number has moved, three two and one…but whatever the number is, it’s about 1 ½ or 2 right now, I like the Jets to win the game straight up. The Chargers are a soft 4-1 and they’ve struggled at times against the Vikings, Chiefs, Dolphins and Broncos. Philip Rivers is not having a great year; I continue to argue that every year with Norf Turner, there is some erosion in the team. Last year it was the special teams, this year it’s the turnovers as they are -5, it’s another sloppy Norf Turner team. In the last 9 quarters that the Jets have played at home…they haven’t given up a touchdown! I think the Jets team is desperate and they are a different team at home. They’re desperate, at home and have a coaching advantage and a defensive advantage. Mark Sanchez has gone 2 games with no picks…they’re becoming the Jets of late last year again. The weather cools; a little more formidable…I’ll take the Jets to win the game outright 23-21.
Broncos (+2) vs. Dolphins
I’m getting points and I get the better team with Denver! Oh, Miami is not that much worse than Denver, but they are worse …and they’re going in the wrong direction. Meanwhile the locker room for Denver right now is energized with Tim Tebow. 3 starts last year, he gave you 200 yards passing, 60 yards rushing, but he gave you 7 all purpose touchdowns and that’s what Tebow does…cause he’s not Aaron Rogers. But one thing that Denver does well…they can pound the ball! They have 3 capable guys who can run the ball, Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno and Lance Ball…add a fourth with Tim Tebow’s legs. All I know is this… I am going to get an energized Denver team that is formidable running the football. I get nothing that is formidable with the fish. By the way, Brandon Marshall – who has a case of the drops this year for Miami, he’ll be neutralized because Champ Bailey is a lockdown corner. I’m taking the points; Miami is going in the wrong direction. It is a locker room that is splintering, Denver wins the game, and I’m taking the points 23-21.
Falcons (+4) vs. Lions
You know, Detroit is a nice team…but as some people have sort of suggested…they’re a little over-rated. I mean Detroit is 4th in the league in penalties, atrocious on 3rd downs and they can’t stop the run. I get the veteran quarterback Matt Ryan and I get four points. The Lions are 26th against the run – they can rush the passer, but Adrian Peterson has given them trouble and now I get Michael Turner – and by the way, because the Lions are all banged up in the secondary, Tony Gonzalez is going to have a field day because they Lions’ safeties can’t rotate much to help on Gonzalez because they have to respect Roddy White and Michael Turner in running the football. By the way, yes Atlanta lost big on the grass to Chicago and Tampa, but those were grass fields, that are an off-surface for the Falcons…they’re a very nice dome team. They are a nice turf team and that’s what they get in Detroit; they are desperate to win this game because Tampa and New Orleans right now are winning their games. I get a little more urgency, I get the veteran quarterback, I get the team that can pound the run, and I get a younger team coming off a tough emotional loss to the Niner’s. Now, I have Atlanta winning, just take the 4 points…I’m not sure if they win, I’ll go 23-21 Falcons.
Steelers vs. Cardinals (+4)
I’m going the other way on this! I’m going to go Arizona at +4 on this. Pittsburgh – I get Ken Whisenhunt, he knows Pittsburgh people. I get Ken Whisenhunt with a bye week, they are desperate! The season right now for Arizona is this game. I get a Steelers team that for the past 4 weeks has been 1-3 against the spread, are beat up physically, Troy Polamalu, you’ve got all kinds of guys hurt: James Harrison, Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith. You have a Pittsburgh team right now that is sloppy, Big Ben has been sacked 18 times, they’re -10 in difference in turnovers…this is not a Pittsburgh Steelers team right now that is healthy, playing great football, that is tight and that is efficient. You get an Arizona team off a bye, it is their season…I think they have a chance to win this game, whether they do or not, just take the 4 points – it’s too many to give a desperate team against a banged up Steelers team,24-23 Steelers is my predicted score.