Record after Week # 9 is: 29-16-4 *note: first 5 picks were all college picks
Eagles (-12) over Cardinals
Eagles at home and it’s a huge number that they’re getting but Arizona’s got a bad front, they’ve allowed 27 sacks in between – Trent Cole, Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins, between the 3 guys I get 18 sacks this year. Quarterback? Edge Philadelphia, Offensive line – believe this or not, edge Philadelphia, defensive line? Edge Philadelphia, Coach? Probably edge Philadelphia. Now, the Eagles have not been a great home team and they are a team that can get sloppy and turn it over, but Arizona does not have the personnel to create turnovers, as they’re only at a (-3) turnover ratio all year. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona’s best player, but Nnamdi Asomugha matches up nicely to neutralize that. I think this is the one blowout game of the weekend, 30-10 Philadelphia, swallow the points.
Falcons (+1) over Saints
Basically it’s going to be a “pick’em” right now as Atlanta, right now, is getting only one point and let’s be honest about New Orleans…they’re great at home and average on the road. That’s a pattern we’ve seen before. The Falcons started slowly, but in their last 3 games, they are only allowing 11 points per game. Much like the Jets, they have found themselves and are very good. Against the run they’re excellent and here’s the key stat in the game, the Saints are 6-0 this year when they’ve rushed for 100+ yards or more, they are 0-3 when they haven’t. My prediction? They will not rush with Mark Ingram out for over 100 yards. The Saints right now aren’t very complete, Jonathan Vilma is hurt and may not play. Cornerback Tracy Porter may not play, it’s a “pick’em” game, and I’ll take Atlanta – a good home team, by a field goal 24-21
Bills (+5.5) over Cowboys
Told you earlier that I thought the Bills had a real chance to upset the Cowboys – Mike Jenkins at corner is out and the way to neutralize this Buffalo offense is to be great at corner and the Cowboys are not. Sean Lee, linebacker for the Cowboys could be out! This is a huge game for the Bills, first of 3 straight road games. It’ll be a “make or break” game for Buffalo right now. They could fall apart after that Jets loss. Dallas is a lousy home favourite, as they’ve failed to cover 8 of the last 10 times they’ve been favoured at home. Offensive line in this game? Edge to Buffalo. Defensive line in this game? Edge Buffalo. Even though their offense struggled last week, they run the football; they are very good in the Redzone, excellent tight end play. Dallas has been exploited on the ground; I really think Buffalo has a chance to win. I’m going to go 28-27 Dallas, but take the 5 ½ points.
Giants (+3.5) over 49ers
Alrighty, the Giants get 3 ½ points, that’s a lot to give a New York Giants team that’s one of the best road teams in the league and Hakeem Knicks is scheduled to play. Now, like I always tell you, the 4 most important factors in a game are: quarterback, offensive line, defensive line and coach. Well quarterback, offensive line and defensive line all strongly favour the Giants. The coach is a coin flip, though San Francisco is still a limited team, 26th in the NFL on offense. What San Francisco is exceptional at is disrupting and getting to opposing quarterbacks and they do it with blitzes. Eli Manning has been exceptional this year, calling pre-snap coverage’s to take care of schemes and blitzes. Eli may do it better than anybody, except Tom Brady, in the NFL; this is just too many points and a very close low-scoring game. Alex Smith against the ferocious pass rush of the Giants… smells like a Giant win to me, 21-20. Take the 3 ½ points.
Patriots (+1) over Jets
Everybody in the world likes the Jets, probably why I’ve got to go with the Patriots at +1; it might move up to +2 for the Patriots by game time. Five weeks ago, New England out gained the Jets 2:1. It wasn’t just a game that New England won, Brady vs. Sanchez…who are we kidding? Tom is on pace to throw 5,000 yards and 40 TD’s. Bill Belicheck…oh yeah, he matters, is 25-10, 71% winnings following a straight up loss. Quarterback? Big edge Patriots. Offensive line? Big edge Patriots. Coach? Edge Patriots. Tom Brady stunk last week, he doesn’t stink in back to back weeks and he can struggle against elite pass rushes…the Jets don’t have one, they are only 19th in the league in sacks. It’s a close game, but I’m always going to take Brady and Belicheck and points off a loss. 27-23 New England.