Record after Week # 10 is: 30-20-4 *note: first 5 picks were all college picks
So for those of you who have been faithfully reading these “Suerte Cinco” picks for this NFL season, you know that for about the first 2 months of the season I was absolutely on fire with my picks, so much so that non-football buddies wanted to make some dough on the side and profit. Last week, they almost crucified me! I was absolutely embarrassing! I’d see them on campus, they wouldn’t even say hi to me because they’re on protest until I redeem myself (hopefully this week) I was 1-4 last week…I was a loser!! If it wasn’t for the majestic Tom Brady (against my Jets ) I would’ve swung and missed 5 times. Folks, like Tim Tebow…I have beliefs…core beliefs! Undeterred…here we go again
Dolphins (-2.5) over Bills
Alrighty, I normally don’t like favourites – I usually take dogs, but I’m going to take the Dolphins at –2 ½. Listen, they’d be above .500 had they not blown three 4th quarter leads. They should’ve beaten the Giants in New York – they give you everything they’ve got! Buffalo is 1-3 in their last 4 and they’re a mess offensively. Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging about 200 yards throwing – his weak arm has officially been unveiled. Fred Jackson is 40% of this offense! The problem is…Fred Jackson is going to struggle against Miami because I think they have some of the best linebackers in the game: from Karlos Dansby to Kevin Burnett to Cameron Wake. The Miami offense has some big time playmakers – Anthony Fasano, Brandon Marshall…Buffalo on the other hand, has been exploited through the air. I just see two teams going in opposite directions, Miami is not good but could be .500 and Buffalo fooled people for about a month and a half. I’m going to swallow the points, 27-20 Miami.
Seahawks (+3) over Rams
Alrighty, Seahawks get a field goal edge. These are two bad teams, but right now, St. Louis is banged up and averaging 12 ½ a game! Sam Bradford is still looking tentative following that high ankle sprain. Seattle has won 11 of the past 12 meetings between these two teams. Steven Jackson is the key to the Rams’ offense averaging 5.1 a carry. Unfortunately for the Rams, the Seahawks defend the run very well, 4th best in the NFL. Now Seattle makes a lot of mistakes – they’re a young team and when they go on the road to loud arenas, they can get in trouble. St Louis does not have a disruptive crowd. The Seahawks team is young – young teams are hot and cold, but Seattle feels very good about itself and the Rams have to run in order to be successful – they’ve run the ball 30 or more times in 3 games this year, winning two of them and went to overtime in the next one. They will not be able to run the ball effectively over the long-term! I’m taking the points; Seattle beats St. Louis 21-20.
Redskins (+8) over Cowboys
I think the Cowboys win, but the 8 points is a ton! Home dogs are generally good bets. Now, Beck’s is out and Grossman is back in…that’s gross man! But he’s better than Beck who was an absolute mess! At least you’ve got someone who can throw the football. The Redskins remain respectable on defense – only one opponent has scored more than 23 points on the Redskins all year (ironically saw it in person at the Rogers Centre). This is a long standing divisional rivalry, you’re going to get the Redskins’ best shot because they’re not a playoff team and the Redskins have covered 4 out of the last 5 in this rivalry. Don’t forget that you can run on Dallas! You couldn’t early but you can now. In their last 3 games, they’ve given up 540 rushing yards. Redskins will pound it, keep the score low, keep the ball away from Romo…I’m taking the points, Dallas wins – but it’s close, 26-20.
Bears (-4) over Chargers
Alrighty, again…I like dogs over favourites, but this one is about 3 ½ or 4 and it’s at Chicago. Now San Diego is very well rested…so what? They’re still poorly coached! You can give a bad team extra time…they’re still wasting time with all that time. 40 degree Fahrenheit with a projected 30 mph winds…there’s your time off! You’re going to Chicago against a Bears team that’s won 4 straight…straight up and 4 straight against the spread. Specials teams… if there was any doubt? Huge edge Chicago! Momentum? Huge edge Chicago. Coach? Huge edge Chicago. Defensive Line? Huge edge Chicago. Now, San Diego can move the ball, but unless they score big touchdowns, the Bears are great in the Redzone defensively. I’m taking Chicago to cover, 27-20.
Bengals (+7) over Ravens
Ray Lewis is not going to play…that’s good news for the Bengals who’ve given Joe Flacco headaches before. Joe Flacco…2 TD’s and 9 picks in his last 4 games against Cincinnati. Tory Smith is inconsistent, Lee Evans is hurt and Flacco – and this team has lost to Seattle, should’ve lost to Arizona, lost to Tennessee and Jacksonville. Cincinnati’s 3 losses have been by a combined 14 points! I really like Cincinnati in this one. Now, AJ Greene is hurt, but they have a ton of really interesting receivers: Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, Andrew Hawkins, and Jermaine Gresham. I ‘m not sure if Cincinnati can beat them! My gut feeling says “go with the Ravens at home” 27-26 Ravens, but I’m taking the 7 points.