Week # 12 “Suerte Cinco” Moneymaker NFL Picks

Posted: November 24, 2011 in NFL

Record after Week # 11 is: 34-20-5 *note: first 5 picks were all college picks

Broncos (+7) over Chargers

Alrighty, Denver and Tim Tebow at +7, meaning they are the underdog and they are getting 7 points here. Now, it’s at San Diego but it has always been one of the least relevant home field advantages in the NFL and the Broncos are 4-1 in Tebow’s 5 starts. The big story has been how good Denver’s defense has been. John Fox is an excellent defensive coach, Vaughan Miller probably going to be defensive rookie of the year, Champ Bailey remains a lock down corner, and he’ll take Vincent Jackson, the wide out, out of the game for San Diego – their best weapon. The other big story is that San Diego’s defense has become atrocious under Norf Turner’s coaching because they have regressed! They have given up about 30 points in the last month and a half. Defensive line in this game? huge edge to Denver, for special teams? Huge edge Denver. Linebacker, defensive back and coach…huge edge Denver. I’m going to take the 7 points all day long. Denver and Tebow win outright against a team that doesn’t know what they are doing and where they are going. Denver is limited but they know what they are, 24-20 take the points. Denver wins outright.

Lions (+7) over Packers

Alright, Green Bay is the better team but Detroit’s at home getting 7 points. It’s the Packers’ third game in 11 days! Even if you’re talented, that is a ton. James Starks, the running back, leg injury…may not play, certainly not at 100% and on the offensive and defensive lines; I give be edge to Detroit. Now the Packers can throw with anybody, but running the football – under 4 yards a carry. Meanwhile Detroit – which has not been what you would consider a great running team most of the year – ever, since they gave Kevin Smith the chance to be the running back, because Jahvid Best got hurt, he’s taken advantage of it. Since Week 11 due to injuries, he’s been fairly formidable and Green Bay, defending the run is not great. They’ve given up 4.7 yards per attempt. But I go back to this: Matt Stafford at home is better than Matt Stafford quarterback on the road, Green Bay …3rd game in 11 days and because of that, I think Detroit keeps it very very close. I still think the Packers are too reliant on Aaron Rogers. I’ll take the 7 points. Green Bay wins it 28-27, but I’m taking the 7 points.

Redskins (+4) over Seahawks

The Seahawks are favoured for the first time in a season; do you know why that is? They’re not very good. They are still a weak team in a bad division. Of their last 10 wins, 6 have been against the dreadful NFC West. Meanwhile the Redskins may get rolled in their own division, but when you get them out of the NFC East, they are 4 out of their last 10 – 4 for 6, not a bad team. There are times when they have looked good – don’t look at the Redskins stats, those are John Beck’s at quarterback. Santana Moss is back and Rex Grossman can throw the football. The Seahawks are favoured, this is the first time in 17 games. Don’t buy it for a second, even if Seattle wins, you’ve got to take the value. I get a better quarterback – in my opinion, I may get a better NFL coach. I get a Seattle Seahawk team that could potentially win their third game, but let’s not kid ourselves, when’s the last time they won 3 straight games? Take the points, it’s where all the value is, I’m going to go with the Redskins winning the game, 21-20.

Cowboys (-7) over Dolphins

Alrighty, the Dolphins are playing well, but typically people will overreact to teams winning streaks against dogs. The Dolphin wins have been against Washington, Kansas City and Buffalo – those are not elite offenses and they are travelling on a short week against Tony Romo – who is the hottest quarterback not named Aaron Rogers, in the NFL. He’s 65 for 90, 8 TD’s with no picks. Huge edge in this game…       quarterback, goes to Dallas. Huge edge in this game…offensive linemen, running back and receiver…Dallas. The Dolphins have been marginal at protecting their quarterback and Dallas has 26 sacks. DeMarcus Ware leads the NFL with 14.To me; this game will come down to Dallas at home, short week, as a very good football team. Miami has been very inconsistent against the pass. If they don’t get a pass rush – and Dallas’ offensive line has improved. You’re not getting to Tony Romo and he’s going to eat you alive. I’m going to swallow the 7 ½ points. Dallas wins 27-17.

Arkansas (+12) over LSU

 I haven’t a picked college game in a long time, depending on where you bet, you can get 12, 13 or 14 point with Arkansas…I’d take all of them, I’d take 12, 13 or 14. The Razorbacks, like USC, are a young team who has grown massively in the last month and a half. By the way, Bobby Petrino is 2-1 against Les Miles, the only loss? Was an overtime loss. This is a young team, outstanding at quarterback and Tyler Wilson…big edge quarterback to Arkansas, big edge wide receiver to Arkansas, coach? Bobby Petrino – who is no slouch, is at least equal to Les Miles and the Razorbacks have Jerius Wright, Coli Hamilton, Greg Childs and Joe Adams. They have a bebby of offensive playmakers. LSU wins the game, but Arkansas – don’t kid yourself, they’re also 13th nationally in scoring defense and they don’t have to face a great quarterback! They face LSU’s quarterbacks. This is a tight football; I think it’s one of the best college lines of the year. I’ll take LSU to win, 31-24, but you gotta take the points at 12, 13 or 14.

So I’m taking mostly underdogs:  I’m taking Detroit at +7, Redskins +4, Broncos +7 and my only favourites is  Cowboys at -7. Dallas is my only favourite…and I’m playing underdog. Denver +7, Lion +7, Redskins +4, Arkansas +12. So I’m taking 4 underdogs and I’m taking the Dallas Cowboys at -7 over the Miami Dolphins

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Comments
  1. Mike Crack says:

    I had Packers-7, Cowboys-7, Seahawks-4, Chargers-7. I agree with you on the LSU-Arkansas game. Go Hogs!

  2. Mike Crack says:

    I’ve retracted my stance on the LSU-Ark game. I’m going with LSU.

  3. Javid J says:

    Arizona ML +120

    St Louis has scored less than 14 points in 7 games out of the 10 games they have played this year, and the have one of the worst offence lines in the nfl. Kolb might be starting this game and beanie wells is close to 100%, Fitzgerald should have a good game as the rams dont have any shutdown cb’s

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