Could We Possibly Be Whiffing On How Good Andrew Luck Will Be?

Posted: April 6, 2012 in NFL
Tags: , , , , ,

So with the NFL draft coming up and all, I’ve been getting all these emails – firstly asking if I’m still alive…clearly I am, just had some personal matters to attend to and crunching fantasy baseball numbers using spring training stats for my keepers league isn’t something I take lightly. Anyways, Secondly and more importantly, a lot of you are asking if Andrew Luck is the real deal or could we all be possibly whiffing. For starters, people have a right to ask and I’m at a point where I’m getting enough emails and the volume is enough where I’m just going to answer it. So is it possible that we are all making a huge mistake with Andrew Luck? Is it possible that Andrew Luck is over-rated?  I think….no! But you might say “Well Andrew, Ryan Leaf…” he’s not Ryan Leaf.

When you have overwhelming evidence such as Tiger Woods at 13 years old –every golf expert had to be wrong because at 12/13 years old, he already had an agent and everyone in golf acknowledged “that’s the prodigy” You can say “I’m going the other way on this” but what you are then saying is that your smarter than everybody else who works in this business. If you’re a bartender, a lawyer, a doctor, don’t you get agitated when people walk into your law firm or your hospital or your bar and think they know more than you? Don’t pretend you know more than NFL GM’s – it’s what they do for a living and all of them say “best college quarterback in 20 years” As a lawyer, isn’t it frustrating when clients are telling you how to do your job? Heck yeah!! Tiger Woods at 13 was labeled as a “can’t miss” and John Elway was also labeled “can’t miss” athlete.

Now, that doesn’t mean that they are always right, but when every single guy in the league overwhelmingly says “brains A+, arm is A+, eyes A+,  toughness A+, dad played in the NFL, coachability A+”  barring an injury, he’s going to be at least very good. Jimmy Clauson? It was 40/60 amongst the GM’s, Cam Newton was split, Peyton Manning as well…some guys liked Ryan Leaf, Tom Brady – even the Patriots who picked him passed on him for 5 or 6 rounds, so this is one of those situations. Lebron James was another one – go back to the Lebron draft, overwhelmingly 100% of basketball people said that Lebron was the Tiger Woods of the sport – he was the prodigy. So in life, sometimes you have to do things to protect yourself that even if deep down you didn’t believe it to be true, you draft Lebron! If he fails you can say “everybody else loved him too” but you don’t go against unanimous support. There were other good players in that draft – Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, but if you were Cleveland…you had no choice but to draft Lebron if for no other reason than to protect your organization and to protect you! So if you’re the Colts you will take Luck and if he fails? Everybody loved him as well.

Josh McDaniel’s of Denver was a great, young and bright football coach via Belicheck – now he’s a coordinator, he thought he was smarter than the league; he drafted Tebow when no one else would. When you go out in a raft by yourself, sometimes you can hit the lottery but if you fail Josh, your fired! Sometimes, you have to draft Luck! Just as you would have to sign Tiger Woods if you were the #1 golf agent or for the rest of your life people would say “oh hell, you passed on Tiger Woods…you’re an idiot!” and people still say “well college this or college that…” again, overwhelmingly! Nobody is saying, for instance Tim Tebow, Vince Young, Matt Leinhart – half the league didn’t like those guys, more than half on Leinhart, a lot of guys didn’t like Sanchez or Stafford yet with Luck it’s 32 of 32…everybody across the board is in on Luck, you have to take him!

Yet people will still say to you for instance “well, what about Greg Odon?” I always say about Greg Odon that centers are less important, they fall apart, he had major injuries in high school and college, and he was 18 and looked 38! I was never a Greg Odon guy nor was I a Durant guy, but everybody else in the league liked him so with those guys, there were buyers and sellers yet there are no sellers with Luck. So if you’re the Colts and you don’t take him…good luck! You’re on your own on an island…good luck! I’m not willing to do that.

Now, for those of you who have been reading these rants for the past year or so, after this rant you might go “hey Andrew, it sounds like your kinda contracting yourself. You’re the one always claiming to buy what people are selling and now you’re saying buy what people are buying , that’s pretty ironic no?” First off, it’s not ironic because I generally believe that you shouldn’t follow the masses, there’s an old saying, “don’t follow the masses because the masses are…” let’s keep it professional here. But I think there are also times in life that you should just buy Microsoft stock or Apple stock because it’s a good buy, no contradiction at all. Generally speaking, when it comes to gambling for instance, don’t follow the masses. But there are times that conventional wisdom is right – when the smartest people in any industry are all on board, you go for it! By the way, the smartest people in the world were buying technology stocks 15-20 years ago, that’s why my dad initially bought Apple and Microsoft stock. Just because conventional wisdom – anytime the smartest in any industry are in, you go all in! When it comes to Andrew Luck…they are all in!

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Comments
  1. Mike Crack says:

    With Luck, there seems to be a large amount of people who love him, but there are people who say he isn’t the be all end all/on the level of John Elway or Peyton Manning (although there’s some revisionist history with people’s opinions on Peyton. There was a sizeable Leaf contingent at the time)

    Mike Mayock ranks Luck as his No.1 guy, but says Luck isn’t as great as people think. Phil Simms isn’t buying the hype, and Greg Cosell says he likes RGIII more than Luck, based on his film evaluation.

    I’ve said I feel Luck is more on a Matt Ryan level, though I think he’s a better athlete and a better prospect than Ryan was. Indy is sort of handcuffed to take him, though, even if they think RGIII is better. If they pass on Luck, and he excels, while RGIII flops, people would say “What were you thinking? Everyone *knew* Luck was better.” If they take Luck and he flops, well, “everyone said he was going to be good.”

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